American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) has ignited a firestorm with its “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans” fall 2025 campaign, launched July 23, 2025, featuring actress Sydney Sweeney.
This Y2K-inspired ad, dripping with nostalgia and a cheeky jeans/genes pun, has pissed people off and cheered others.
Critics on X and TikTok slam it as racially insensitive and overly sexualized, while others say it is a rejection of “woke” advertising. But either way, the ad got millions of views and is trending, and as we all know, the more people who view advertising, the better it works.
AEO’s stock jumped 18% to $11.74 as of July 25, 2025, fueled by meme stock buzz on the interwebs. The question is whether this campaign will resonate with its target—17-year-old Gen Z females—and drive sales. More critically, is AEO a buy at this price? Let’s dive in.
The Campaign: A High-Stakes Gamble
American Eagle’s campaign banks on Sydney Sweeney’s star power. With 25.2 million Instagram followers and breakout roles in Euphoria and The White Lotus, Sweeney is a Gen Z magnet.
The ad, featuring her in custom “Sydney Jeans” with a butterfly motif tied to domestic violence awareness, uses 3D billboards, AI-powered Snapchat try-ons, and TikTok challenges to dominate the back-to-school season—American Eagle’s make-or-break moment for denim sales.
The nostalgic aesthetic, with low-rise jeans and flirty slogans like “they make your butt look amazing,” marks a sharp departure from AEO’s inclusive “Live Your Life” campaigns.
The controversy stems from the “great genes” tagline and Sweeney’s blonde, blue-eyed image, which some critics on X call “tone-deaf” or even “eugenics-coded.” Many are calling her a Nazi.
Others are whining about the ad’s focus on Sweeney’s figure as regressive. As if hot babes haven’t been selling jeans since Brooke Shields.
On the flip side many viewers hails the ad as “anti-woke,” with posts like “Sydney Sweeney just killed woke advertising.” The campaign’s 2.5 million X mentions reflect its viral reach.
Gen Z Females: Anti-Woke or Split?
The campaign targets 17-year-old females, the core of Gen Z. This group is complex. Pew Research (2023) shows Gen Z females often lean progressive, prioritizing diversity and inclusivity in media.
Many reviewers say that the campaign’s nostalgic, confident vibe resonates with the “anti-woke” subset of Gen Z females, as seen in supportive X posts.
I don’t know anything about selling apparel but it seems to me that Nike and others have won big on rebellious themes. And today the athoratarians teens see in school are woke beyond belief. A teen rebel might embrace anti-woke.
Either way it seems to be working.
Sales Impact: Short-Term Win, Long-Term Risk
Early signs point to success. AEO’s stock soared 18% to $11.74, adding $200–228 million to its market cap, driven by viral buzz and meme stock frenzy. Sweeney’s influence, paired with innovative marketing (Las Vegas Sphere ads, TikTok recreations), is boosting mall traffic and online engagement, critical for Gen Z’s 70% online brand interaction. The campaign’s “anti-woke” edge appeals to a niche but loud segment, potentially spiking Q3 2025 sales.
Valuation and Technical Analysis
At $11.74, AEO is undervalued:
- P/E Ratio: 12.3, well below the US retail average of 18.7, signaling a bargain.
- Price/Sales: 0.6, indicating AEO trades at a discount to revenue.
- Debt/Equity: 0.4, reflecting a strong balance sheet.
- Dividend Yield: 4.16%, offering solid income.
- Market Cap: $2.08 billion, down from a 52-week high of $22.83 but up from a low of $9.27.
Technical Analysis: AEO’s chart is bullish.
The stock broke its 50-day moving average post-campaign, with high volume confirming momentum. The MACD shows a bullish crossover, and the stock is testing resistance at $12.50. A break could target $15, a 27% gain. Support at $10.50 offers a solid risk/reward.
The Verdict: Buy AEO
American Eagle’s Sydney Sweeney campaign is a medium-risk, high-reward move that’s hitting its Gen Z female target, particularly those drawn to “anti-woke” aesthetics. The viral buzz and Sweeney’s star power should drive Q3 2025 sales, despite backlash from progressive teens. At $11.74, AEO’s low P/E, strong dividend, and technical breakout make it a steal. Meme stock momentum and short interest add fuel. Investors should seize this opportunity before the next leg up.
Recommendation: Buy AEO at $11.74 with a target of $15–$17 by year-end 2025. Set a stop-loss at $10.50 for risk management.
All the best,
Christian DeHaemer
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