China Is a Cornered Animal — Will It Strike?

Written By Luke Sweeney

Posted April 4, 2023

If you ask me, it’s not a question of IF China will retaliate — it's WHEN. 

The U.S. has recently spearheaded a movement of restricting the export of critical semiconductor manufacturing equipment to Chinese customers, citing the obvious national security concerns. 

The Netherlands and now Japan the only other countries currently able to build advanced lithography machines have both restricted their overseas sales. 

China is a kleptocracy at best and a hostile foreign power at worst. It makes perfect sense to keep our most valuable secrets guarded from it.

But we can’t expect China to take this lying down. 

This move isn't just political posturing. It’s a direct attack on one of China’s most important industries. 

Chinese companies can eventually build their own machines, but it will take valuable time and also give American and European competitors a huge head start. 

That doesn't compute with the CCP. The party operates like a shark — either keep moving forward or die. 

As much as I begrudgingly respect President Biden for sticking to his guns, he’s playing a very dangerous game right now especially considering the type of military hardware we’ve seen coming from China lately…

Putin Set the Stage for a Decade of Dictators

The Ukraine invasion has been going on far longer than even Russia expected, but it didn’t start in 2022. 

The REAL invasion began in 2014 when Russia pulled this exact same stunt by annexing Crimea — only with less media attention. 

After nearly a decade, Russia hasn't been repelled from the land it seized. And now, emboldened by that apparent success, it's returned to steal even more. 

If anything, it’s shown the rest of the world that imperialism is still an option if you try hard enough. 

As long as you can fend off supply drops from the U.S. and its fellow donors, you can take whatever land you want. 

Here’s the situation as I see it. 

China needs advanced chipmaking equipment to stay relevant, but the suppliers of said equipment have shut the door. 

Its choices are few. It can either launch a military offensive against the most well-armed nation on the planet, or it can play it safe and invade a neighbor. 

And guess which neighbor just happens to be the world’s top expert in chipmaking? Not to mention the target of Chinese aggression for decades now? 

That’s right, poor old Taiwan. The expertise that protected it for years is now making it a prime target for the CCP. 

And now that China has access to what some say are the most powerful weapons ever created, we’re in a unique geopolitical situation. 

The U.S. has always been able to flex its military muscle and get its way, but China has something that can blaze through our best missile defenses like they’re not even there. 

Don’t get me wrong — I’m not expecting China to fire shots in this situation. That would spark the war of the century. 

But now that both nations are on equal footing, the status quo has changed. 

The military brass know exactly how dangerous this technology is, and they’re almost certainly kicking themselves for letting China get it working first. 

It’s very similar to nuclear weapons in that it creates mutually assured destruction, meaning anyone who launches the first missile will spark worldwide retaliation that would destroy the entire planet. 

This prevents any single nation from firing off a nuke at random. In a few years, the world will establish the same standard with this technology. 

That’s why money is pouring into this technology from all sides, both public and private. The earlier we can build our own, the safer the U.S. will be. 

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