Russia Isn’t Stopping — and China Is Just Getting Started

Chinese warplanes have crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait on a daily basis since Nancy Pelosi made her breezy little visit to the embattled island.

On average, seven Chinese warships appear on the horizon each day, cruising by to send a message.

That message: We own you.

It’s not one Taiwan or its president Tsai Ing-wen can accept.

So they’ve begun to retaliate.

Earlier this week, Taiwan fired warning shots at a Chinese drone after Tsai decided she’d had enough and ordered the military to take "strong countermeasures."

The defense ministry also established a red line.

"For aircraft and ships that entered our sea and air territory of 12 nautical miles, the national army will exercise its right to self-defense and counterattack without exception," declared Lin Wen-Huang, Taiwan's deputy chief of the general staff for operations and planning.

The response from Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian:

Firstly I need to tell you, Taiwan is a province of China — it has no so-called defense ministry. The Taiwan authorities are playing up their nervousness; this is meaningless.

In a way, this is all standard. China has been threatening, denying, and intruding on Taiwan’s sovereignty for decades.

But it’s also different, because China has used Nancy Pelosi’s visit to tighten the noose on its renegade province. Intimidation tactics that used to end at the median line of the strait now exceed it. 

The norm has shifted. Incursions are more frequent and more extreme.

The escalation is undeniable.

Meanwhile, everyone is looking at Russia’s assault on Ukraine — a country it should have easily steamrolled given its military’s advantages in size and equipment.

For China, it’s either a cautionary tale or a case study in what not to do. 

And for Taiwan, it’s a glimmer of hope and a playbook for sustained resistance. 

The defense department that China claims doesn’t exist is now stocking up on the weapons that have rescued Ukraine from annihilation. 

An order for Javelin anti-tank missiles is in the production and delivery phase, and an order for HIMARS has been increased from 11 to 29.

I’ve talked at length about these weapons both here at Outsider Club and in my Wall Street’s Proving Ground and Secret Stock Files newsletters.

Javelins are great and all, but as an island, I don’t feel like Taiwan has all that much to fear from tanks. If Chinese tanks make it ashore, they’re done. 

The HIMARS are a bigger deal.

That acronym stands for High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.

They consist of a rocket launcher mounted to a truck with a pod of six 227-mm guided missiles. One of their key advantages (in addition to their mobility and precision) is their range, which is about 50 miles. 

Ukraine has had a lot of success with them because they can sit beyond the reach of Russian howitzers and blow them up. 

In Taiwan’s case, they could be turned on Chinese ships in the strait, which is 80–110 miles wide. 

That’s U.S. firepower for you, and more is on the way.

In addition to propping up the Ukrainian forces with $11 billion in military assistance, the Biden administration is preparing to furnish Taiwan with more than $1 billion in missiles and radar equipment.

Last week, Taiwan proposed raising its total spending on the military by almost 14% next year to more than $19 billion. 

It's going to need every dime. 

Because China is only going to get more aggressive from here on out and ultimately attack.

It’s impossible to say when exactly, but it’s going to happen. And it’s going to make the Ukraine conflict look like a sideshow.

To what extent the United States gets drawn into the conflict is another open question. 

If China succeeds in toppling Taipei in the first 24–48 hours, we might not even have a chance to get involved. 

But if Taiwan is able to hold out, it’s going to be difficult for America to offer the same aloof support we’ve offered Ukraine.

We’ll be expected to do far more for the island democracy we’ve supported for the past 70 years.

Regardless, the direction the world is headed is clear. 

I spend a lot of time milling around Washington, D.C., and attending defense conferences, and for the past decade the key phrase has always been “great power conflict.”

Even before we fully extracted ourselves from Iraq and Afghanistan that was the focus. 

Russia isn’t stopping. China is just getting started. 

The world is loading up. 

Investors should too.

And I don’t just mean buying gold, guns, and dry rations and locking yourself in a storm cellar.

I mean investing in the companies that are arming the planet with next-generation war-fighting technology... 

Cyber warriors, drone manufacturers, AI component supplies, and, most of all, hypersonic missiles. 

Remember, this is World War III we’re talking about, not World War I or II. It’s not going to be trench warfare or street fighting. 

It’s going to be cyberattacks, drone swarms, and long-range missiles flying more than five times the speed of sound. 

So I highly encourage you to check out my latest presentation on China’s new superweapon and the U.S. response.

You can find out more about that here.

Fight on,

Jason Simpkins

@OCSimpkins on Twitter

Jason Simpkins is Assistant Managing Editor of the Outsider Club and Investment Director of Wall Street's Proving Ground, a financial advisory focused on security companies and defense contractors. For more on Jason, check out his editor's page. 

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