Mr. Dines: It's All About Context

Written by James Dines
Posted July 25, 2020

Publisher's Note: Today we're bringing you an excerpt from The Dines Letter.

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more experienced market analyst than Mr. Dines, and it'd be even harder to find one as accomplished. Read on for an important message we should all keep in mind from the "Original Goldbug".

Call it like you see it,

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Nick Hodge


 

While we still favor some precious metals, ________ is a different recommendation. Its bullish uptrend is plainly evident in this chart of it. Not even TDLrs believed in our predictions of “The Coming Physical Immortality” starting in 1985, understandably so inasmuch as nobody else is predicting it. We base it on hard science, and __________ has a tool to accomplish that goal, offering TDLrs a way to make money investing in it. Since our recent recommendation, the stock has soared gratifyingly 137%.

The word “context” is derived from the Latin verb contextere, meaning “to weave together.” The High State of Context is seeing and understanding things within their frameworks. An entire situation, background, or environment could be relevant to something happening. And could throw light on its meaning. 

One of Mass Psychology’s peculiarities is the difficulty of remembering Context instead of merely the final result. For example: We comprehended that the Wuhan virus would be a “pandemic” in early January 2020, but the collective media at the time was adamantly and vehemently against that word. We regret that we allowed ourselves to be so intimidated by that Context that we understated our own view that this virus was a pandemic rather than merely a stronger form of the flu; thus, we merely published a dictionary definition of the word “pandemic” (in our TDL of 7 Feb 20, page 2) as a subtle clue to TDLrs about our thinking.

Afterward, we were so annoyed with ourselves, that we had allowed the Mass to stifle our prediction of a pandemic, that we made up for it in the very next TDL by explicitly calling the Wuhan virus a “pandemic.” Our use of the word pandemic was definitely not well received, perhaps motivated by Mass Fear, or DIFOPE*, but we would not be stifled. Indeed, in our TDL of 18 Mar 20 (page 3) we finally reported that “pandemic” had become accepted by the Word Police. 

Now, the majority finally accepts that the virus is a pandemic, with little or no memory of its former negative Context! We are fascinated how the Mass played with our normally iron-willed devotion to our honest perceptions. We then pondered our intimidation by Context, whose peculiarity is that its negative inhibition gets completely forgotten, and we only recalled the final thought that this was and is a pandemic. The Context of the situation could be poisonous, that it is perhaps partially why so few dare to make predictions.

The point is, learning how to predict is not merely remembering what actually did happen, but also what its context was at the that time. Why is Context so important? Understanding why things happened, instead of simply what happened can help in forecasting future probabilities. Your High State tools can be used to identify what was impinging on your expectations at the time, to improve your future predictions.

Context is also useful in studying psychology, especially on “levels.” Context could apply to a small point, such as the truthful name of a phenomenon, with pandemic as in the above. Or the mind- blowing “Context of the universe” itself, covered in your High States book (see page 162, in chapter X). 

Late last year there was something subtly unsettling us; we originally had thought it was the then- excessive optimism. Looking back we were Sensing something dire on the horizon. We were correct about weak markets coming in early 2020. We were again early when we flashed our warning about the Wuhan virus when only 6 people had died from it, which took guts in that Context. Then it emerged that China’s doctors had known about the virus in December 2019, but hadn’t alerted the world. We are gratified that we did. 

Oh yes, while we’re at it, police used to hand a dreaded “ticket” to illegal parkers. Now it’s become a “citation,” like getting a gold star in a childhood school. Instead of getting “fired” people are “furloughed.” Finally “safe sex” used to mean the car doors were locked. 

 


James Dines is legendary for having made correct forecasts that were in complete contradiction to the rest of the financial community. He is the author of five highly regarded books, including "Goldbug!," in addition to his popular newsletter, The Dines Letter, and videotaped educational series. Dines' highly successful investment strategies have been praised by Barron's, Financial Times, Forbes, Moneyline, and The New York Times, among others.

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