China Is Ready for War — Are We?

China’s spy balloon caught the nation’s attention, but there’s something far more serious concerning Pentagon officials this week…

Evidence that China is prepared to send weapons to Russia. 

Such assistance could provide a badly needed lifeline for beleaguered Russian forces. 

But it would also send an unmistakable message to the rest of the world…

China is ready for war. 

In a way, that seems totally natural. 

After all, we knew this day would come.

China has been building up its military for decades, and in the process, it’s grown more assertive (aggressive, even) in its diplomacy.

However, it’s also somewhat jarring, because the modern world has never seen China as a military power.

Remember, this is a country whose own historical doctrine laments a “century of humiliation” — a 100-year period from the mid-19th century to the communist revolution in which it was completely and totally victimized by today’s Western powers.

That includes the Opium Wars carried out by Great Britain and several ruthless invasions by imperial Japan in the 1930s and '40s.

So this is new. China has never before been considered a modern military power. 

Yet inserting itself so directly into this conflict — which has become a symbolic (and really, a proxy) war pitting Western democracy against a tyrannical aggressor — would establish that it is just that...

A global military power with its own capacity to intervene and influence international outcomes.

Up to this point, China has been content to act diplomatically. 

Its leader, Xi Jinping, and his loyal officials have made explicit declarations of support for the Russian invasion while simultaneously blaming the United States and the West for its escalation. 

As soon as the war broke out, the two powers touted a friendship “with no limits.”

China has also supported Russia economically, buying up Russian energy resources and selling back industrial goods and tech components to compensate for Western sanctions. 

China bought $50.6 billion worth of crude oil from Russia from March–December last year, up 45% from the same period the previous year. 

It imported $10 billion worth of coal, which was a 54% increase. 

And natural gas purchases soared 155%, to $9.6 billion.

As a result, trade between China and Russia jumped 30% in 2022, to a record-high $190 billion.  

In return, Russia has been spending billions on Chinese machinery, electronics, base metals, vehicles, ships, and aircraft. However, the goods exchanged in those deals, while clearly used for military manufacturing, have ostensible civilian purposes.

So, again, actual weapons sales would mark an entirely new escalation. 

And a dangerous one. 

As I’ve said (and we’ve all observed), Russia’s invasion has not gone well. 

First, Ukraine denied Vladimir Putin the quick victory he thought he’d easily win, and then Ukrainian forces retook almost all of the land Russia had seized in the eastern part of the country. 

Over the winter, the two sides reached a bit of a stalemate, but over the past few weeks Russia has launched a counteroffensive of its own. 

That, too, has failed… so far. 

Chinese weapons could be enough to tip the scale — especially if they arrive before Ukraine has fully integrated the pending influx of Western tanks.

Ukrainian forces are also running out of ammunition as Russia continues to conscript thousands of new soldiers to throw into the meat grinder.

Even if they fail to turn the tide, weapons shipments from China would almost certainly cause the West to increase its support with more advanced armaments that have been held back — like F-16s, for example. 

That would, in turn, antagonize China, which suddenly has more invested in the conflict than a passive political interest.

It might even deploy weapons from its hypersonic arsenal — weapons we don’t have and can’t defend — to destroy advanced American tanks and equipment. 

Or, with the United States distracted in Ukraine, China might finally make its long-awaited move on Taiwan, jeopardizing U.S. Pacific assets.

In the end, we might all be sucked into WWIII. 

That’s why I spend so much time researching and investing in the defense sector.

And it’s why I recently launched Secret Stock Files, an investment service that focuses exclusively on military technology, with weekly updates and monthly videos.

So be sure to check that out if this kind of thing interests you — or you just want to make money.

Fight on,

Jason Simpkins

@OCSimpkins on Twitter

Jason Simpkins is Assistant Managing Editor of the Outsider Club and Investment Director of Wall Street's Proving Ground, a financial advisory focused on security companies and defense contractors. For more on Jason, check out his editor's page. 

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